The Arab World is in a state of flux. Leaders are going out, leaders are coming in. It is an opportunity for India to renew its ties to the region
On Friday, December 17, 2010, when most Indians were watching a cricket Test match between India and South Africa (in which Jacques Kallis and Hashim Amla tortured Indian bowling with a 200-run stand), a sad but momentous event took place in a small town called Sidi Bouzid in faraway Tunisia. A 26-year-old street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself afire in protest against corruption and harassment by police. This isolated incident would anger Tunisians so much that a revolution would ensue and overthrow the 23-year-old regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Within weeks, it would spread to Egypt, Libya and several other countries in North Africa and the Middle East, finally blossoming into the Jasmine Revolution. The Arab World would stand redefined and several countries — including India — would see their strategic and economic interests hanging in balance.
As much as 70 percent of India’s oil imports comes from the Middle East and North Africa. A large portion of our exports and imports pass through the Suez Canal. In recent years, a large number of Indian companies have set up businesses there. If they were to be uprooted, investor hearts would burn. As many as five million Indians live in the region and their safety cannot be taken for granted. All this requires that we, in India, understand the conflict in all its facets.
To do so, we turn to someone who has a first-hand experience of the region. Sundeep Waslekar, president of Strategic Foresight Group, a think tank, has worked closely with many governments and leaders of the 22-nation Arab League. He is the author of Cost of Conflict in the Middle East and The Blue Peace, both reports on the Middle East. He also advises governments around the world and makes recommendations on policy and strategy.
The Spark in the Jungle
In Lebanon, we had the Saad Hariri government which was very friendly to the West and Saudi Arabia. That collapsed. It collapsed because the Sunni-Shia conflict changed arithmetic in the Parliament. But of course, the arithmetic is not independent from what is happening on the street. Infographic: Sameer Pawar
The earlier governments were for open economy. But the new, emerging leaders aren’t. They place a premium on nationalism.
(This story appears in the 25 March, 2011 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)