Global chip shortage challenges Biden's hope for manufacturing revival

The United States has also tried to leverage its ties with Taiwan, one of the world’s largest chip manufacturers, to make sure American customers are not disadvantaged. In a letter sent on Wednesday, Deese thanked Wang Mei-Hua, the Taiwanese minister of Economic Affairs, for her “personal attention and support in resolving the current shortages faced by American automobile manufacturers.”

During the past year, the Trump administration tried to strengthen ties with the Taiwanese government and manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to counter China’s growing influence over the chip market.

The Biden administration is also meeting with auto companies and suppliers to identify bottlenecks and to urge them to work together to address the shortage. But the White House has acknowledged that its options to alleviate any shortfall are likely to be limited, given the fierce global competition for semiconductors. Many chipmakers are already running near maximum capacity, and it will take at least several months to further ramp up production, analysts say.

The shortage has been particularly disruptive for auto manufacturers because the production of vehicles relies on dozens of computer chips for electronic components that control engines, transmissions, entertainment systems, brakes and other systems. Both General Motors and Ford have estimated the shortage will lower their operating profit by at least $1 billion this year.

GM has halted production at one plant in the United States, one in Canada and another in Mexico until at least mid-March. At a fourth plant, the company has decided to produce vehicles without the electronics that are in short supply. When components become available, GM will install them and then ship the vehicles to dealers.

Ford canceled shifts last week at two important pickup truck plants. One of them, near Kansas City, Missouri, is closed this week because of inclement weather and a shortage of natural gas in the Midwest.

Economists say the effect is likely to be small but noticeable. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he expected the chip shortage to reduce new vehicle sales by 450,000 units in 2021. That would lower overall economic output in the United States by approximately $15 billion, or not quite 0.1% of gross domestic product, which is expected to increase by 5.6% this year, he said.

Industry analysts say the shortages are partly because of a prepandemic trend toward consolidation and inventory depletion in the chip sector, which was exacerbated by the kind of coronavirus-related disruptions that have led to shortages of other products, such as exercise bikes, tablets and toys.

Factory shutdowns, first in China and then elsewhere around the world, disrupted production of the chips and the cars and electronics that require them. Automakers and consumer electronics companies then underestimated the surge in demand from buyers, leaving companies scrambling with chipmakers to secure their supply, according to analysts.

President Donald Trump’s trade policy might have also played a role, as chipmakers anticipated that new U.S. restrictions on the type of technology that Chinese companies such as Huawei could buy would lower demand. Chipmakers responded by trimming output.

Winter storms this week have also shut down or slowed production at chip factories owned by Samsung and NXP Semiconductors near Austin, Texas, potentially exacerbating the shortages.

John Neuffer, the president of the Semiconductor Industry Association, said that the pandemic had thrown off the short-term balance between supply and demand.

“Chip companies are working hard to meet demand from the auto and other sectors,” he said, “but these are highly complex products that can take months to produce, so it’s unfortunately not like flipping a switch.”

Neuffer said the shortages highlighted the need for the U.S. government to “invest now in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research so the new chips we need are produced right here on U.S. shores.”

The United States is home to companies like Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Micron and Qualcomm, and still responsible for designing many of the world’s most advanced chips. But the American share of global chip manufacturing capacity has fallen to 12% from 37% in 1990, according to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association. The shift occurred as American companies outsourced manufacturing and governments in South Korea, Singapore, China and elsewhere aggressively subsidized production.

The Semiconductor Industry Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups sent a letter on Thursday to the Biden administration urging it to work with Congress to provide funding for semiconductor manufacturing and research and to establish an investment tax credit for new manufacturing facilities.

Congress recently passed new legislation to set up manufacturing incentives and research initiatives in the chip industry as part of a defense authorization bill, but the provisions have yet to be fully funded.