India and the two QUADs: Importance of the grand coalitions to counter China's growing influence

Greater strategic cooperation with the US is critical to India, especially in the context of recent developments in India’s relationship with China and Pakistan. On October 17, 2021, the thirteenth round of commander-level talks between India and China broke down after China refused to reach an agreement to mutually disengage forces from the Hot Springs region in Ladakh. Both India and China have significantly increased their military capabilities along their shared border. Interestingly, the 2020 clashes and the subsequent troop build-up, are not just a border issue for the two countries. The two governments are also acutely aware of the need to show strength and resolve against external threats. Especially, at a time when both countries are celebrating important anniversaries of historically significant events—the 75th year of Indian Independence, and the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party this year. For the Chinese President, Xi Jin Ping, the coming year is also important for personal reasons. He is expected to get an unprecedented third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party—and China’s President—at the 20th Party Congress, likely to be held in October/November 2022. Any sign of compromise on border issues—when China’s economic growth is once again slowing down—could weaken his position domestically.  

An improvement in India-China relations seems unlikely until early 2023, at the earliest, and in such an environment, support from the Indo-Pacific Quad could be critical for India.

With the backdrop of the recent developments in Kashmir, the second ‘West-Asia Quad’ becomes important. Pakistan-supported terror groups have recently stepped up a campaign of attacks on innocent civilians, especially those from other states in India. Is this sudden deterioration of the situation in Kashmir, after a period of relative peace following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, related to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent takeover of the country by the Taliban? While any definitive analysis could be difficult, is it not reminiscent of the Pakistan-sponsored militancy that broke out in Kashmir in early 1989, soon after the erstwhile Soviet Union withdrew its forces from that country? Such questions seem to be blowing in the wind.  

The two Quads are also important for India from an economic perspective. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, forces of globalisation are undergoing interesting twists and turns, and multi-national corporations are contemplating adopting a “China plus one” strategy in terms of global supply chain management. Seen in this context, these Quads have significant economic potential. Countries in the two Quads have emerged as important trade and investment partners of India.

There is scope for further enhancing economic ties between these nations. As far as the Indo-Pacific Quad is concerned, in 2020, their combined population was nearly 24 percent of the global population. Their combined GDP (at purchasing power parity) was nearly 28 percent of global GDP. Trade between these four Quad countries exceeded $440 billion in 2018, with nearly $6 trillion in trade with the rest of the world. Four countries in the West-Asia Quad with 23 percent of global GDP and 22 percent of the global population also wield substantial economic muscle. Free Trade Agreements between members of these Quads could further strengthen political and economic ties between them.  

In the days to come, the global policy and economy could witness various moves to counter China’s unabated quest for domination. The rejuvenation of the Indo-Pacific Quad and the emergence of the second West Asia Quad are welcome initiatives from an Indian standpoint; after all, these initiatives question China’s hegemony, and at the same time could have a favourable impact on India’s trade, investment, and growth.

Abraham is a Professor at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta and Ray is Director of National Institute of Bank Management, Pune.