The PM can surprise, but beware the enemy within
Predicting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s future is a tricky business, doubly so, because he has a habit of springing surprises. He writes his own script.
The supremely wily British PM, Harold Macmillan, when asked by a reporter what he feared most in politics, said, “Events, dear boy. Events.” By that he meant unexpected and unanticipated occurrences that can derail the most stable of governments.
Modi, who after nearly 100 days in office looks in total command, seems sure of not just one term in office, but two or even three. With an Opposition that is decimated and devastated, and the overwhelming majority of public opinion behind him, he looks extremely secure. (Clearly, I don’t share his feeling that he is getting a curtailed honeymoon; he is actually getting an extended honeymoon period.)
Assuming Modi continues to live in 7, Race Course Road for a fair amount of time, what kind of India will he usher in?
First, it will be an India over which he has absolute political control. This should be clearly apparent to even the most novice commentator. To implement his vision for India, Modi intends to consolidate power both within the government and the party. With Amit Shah as the new president of the BJP and Arun Jaitley as his right-hand man, that goal is already half-achieved. There is opposition to him within the party—from LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Murli Manohar Joshi and some chief ministers—but they can only strike when Modi seriously falters, loses public support and, most importantly, loses RSS backing. When and if that will happen is something I will refrain from speculating on, except that it cannot be ruled out.
What is Modi’s vision for India? Prior to and just after the elections, he seemed prepared to make the country a right-wing paradise, extremely friendly to big business and unfriendly to the welfare state and jholawallahs.
After the Budget, though, things seem less certain. While the BJP constituency, the middle and the neo-middle class, are being pampered, the PM is pulling his punches.
P Chidambaram, the UPA government’s finance minister, is already claiming the Budget as his—that there is something for everybody. True. Modi has ruffled a few feathers and appears to be cruising along a centrist path. Of course, this is his first (and early) Budget. Therefore, he may be testing waters before embarking on transformative measures. Nevertheless, all indications are that the expected turn to the right may be both marginal and gradual. The welfare state is not about to be dismantled and the jholawallahs are not being sent to prison.
So, what is his vision? I would like to reserve my judgement on the question. Certainly, the speed at which Modi was scheduled to move the country away from the centrist consensus has slowed. Does that mean we will have a status quo as far as policy is concerned?
Perhaps Modi has realised that unlike Europe and the United States, India is not a middle-class society. While this class is growing, the predominant class here is the poor. Whatever criteria you fix, at least 35 percent of the 1.2 billion people will be the poor. There is no way any astute government can ignore that fact. The pink papers tell us that PM Modi has spurned the radical advice of Messrs Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya sticking firmly to the middle path. Whether he will continue on that road is an open question.
In the area of foreign affairs, Modi has bowled a googly to his foes and friends. His audacious invitation to Pakistan Premier Nawaz Sharif does not fit into his Pakistan-baiting background. Indeed, he has shown both pragmatism and courage in reaching out to the international community which may have had some misgivings about him.
(This story appears in the 22 August, 2014 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)