1. Afghanistan after America’s Withdrawal
One of the biggest questions that looms over world politics is what happens to Afghanistan after 2014 when international involvement, especially American military presence, reduces significantly. Kabul has remained the centre of geopolitics for hundreds of years. World powers—Britain, Germany, the Soviet Union, the US—and their allies have all played the Great Game here. But the stakes are highest now, more than ever. US President Barack Obama is committed to withdraw his troops by 2014, though he has said some presence will remain to support Afghans in keeping the security situation stable. That is hardly likely. Even with heavy international military support, the Taliban have grown increasingly powerful and combative over the past few years. The group has increased attacks all over the country and have assassinated several influential figures such as President Hamid Karzai’s brother and Burhanuddin Rabbani, an ex-president and the key interlocutor in peace talks. After the US withdrawal, the country is expected to plunge into chaos.
India is one of the very few international players with no military involvement but a huge stake in Afghanistan’s redevelopment. It has only now signed a strategic pact with it. It has invested billions in building bridges and community institutions and is also developing mines in the Bamiyan province. Pakistan, however, has an even bigger stake and believes that it needs to control that country for strategic depth. It has been keen to thwart India from increasing its influence and is likely to step up its efforts after 2014 when Karzai, who is seen as close to India, steps down.
No one knows what will happen after two years, but everyone is aware that Afghanistan holds the key to stability in not only the region but also the world. Indian policymakers need to be prepared for a radically changed situation in Afghanistan and its impact on its own security.
(This story appears in the 11 January, 2013 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)