The chemistry and momentum is clearly with a charismatic Modi but will he have the numbers to become India’s next prime minister?
For almost three decades, Sharad Pawar has been India’s prime minister-in-waiting. A few years ago, when journalists asked him if he had finally given up on his prime ministerial ambitions, the Maharashtra leader candidly admitted that with a party of less than 10 MPs, his chances for the top job were virtually nil. But then, he cheekily added, “If Deve Gowda can do it, I guess anyone can aspire to be prime minister!”
Kaun Banega Pradhan Mantri promises to be India’s longest running political serial in 2014. Where once the question asked to political pundits was ‘who will form the next government’, now the question raised is ‘who will be the next prime minister’. That, perhaps, is the ‘Narendra Modi effect’ on Indian politics. A party-based political system is now being pushed towards becoming a presidential system where the Indian voter is being asked to choose which individual is best suited to reside at 7 Race Course Road.
Remember a potential north-west monsoon in favour of the BJP may be countered by a south-east drought that continues to stare the saffron combine across a vast geographical area accounting for over 250 seats. The key to power then lies in two states—Bihar and Uttar Pradesh—and in the ability of the BJP to strike post-poll alliances. Of the 120 seats on offer in the two big states of the Hindi heartland, the BJP must win at least 70 seats. Of potential allies, the BJP may need at least two, if not three, of Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Jagan Reddy to align with them.
(This story appears in the 10 January, 2014 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)