CEIBS Economics Professor Xu Bin Offers His Outlook for the Chinese Economy in 2010, and Beyond
To help CEIBS Alumni assess their business strategy for this year, the school’s alumni magazine TheLINK interviews a top economist.
TheLINK: What do you expect for China’s economic development in the short term?
Prof Xu Bin: It is not surprising that China’s GDP growth-rate reached 8.7% for 2009. We all know China’s fiscal stimulus package was very large. But the government cannot continue on that scale indefinitely; the stimulus package is going to run out of steam.
During the first half of this year, China is still going to feel the momentum of the fiscal stimulus package. Also, we are going to see beautiful numbers on China’s exports in early 2010, mainly due to the very low base level of 2009. It is dangerous if you see false signs of recovery and suddenly feel that the economy is strong. In fact, in the second half of 2010, the government policy may not continue in such a strong way and China’s export numbers may not look as good.
[Reprinted with permission from The China Europe International Business School.]