Meteorologist B.N. Goswami says below normal rainfall in early July need not be worrisome
B.N. Goswami
Designation: Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
Age: 61
Education: Ph.D. in plasma physics, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad; M.Sc. in physics, Gauhati University
Experience: Director of IITM since June 2006. Prior to that, he was chairman at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute for Science
Interests: Understanding the variability of Indian monsoon and climate modeling
July is when the country receives the maximum rainfall. This year it doesn’t look so good. What’s your take?
June was good. About 30 percent above normal, but so far in July, it has been a little weaker. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that in the first two weeks of the month it has been up to 20 percent less than normal expectations. But I feel it is still not a cause to be alarmed by. If July is severely below normal, then the season as a whole becomes difficult to recover. IMD has been concerned, but I personally feel there need not be a cause of serious concern because we can recover quite a lot in August. But if July [rainfall] is 30 percent below normal then it becomes difficult. [The week ending July 20 saw rainfall recover over India and cross the long period average of 89 cm by 7 percent.]
(This story appears in the 12 August, 2011 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)