Rain Watch for Sept 26 to Oct 2: Curtains down on monsoon, good harvest likely

The rainy season ends on a strong note, and higher sowing areas of essential crops are expected to ease off food inflation

By Nasrin Sultana

Published: Oct 3, 2024 10:15:22 AM IST

Updated: Oct 3, 2024 10:18:03 AM IST

With monsoon withdrawal starting in mid-September, crop damage should likely be manageable, says Barclays. Image: Shutterstock

Monsoon 2024 has been bountiful, but with scanty patches and uneven distribution among regions. The kharif harvest is likely to increase and expected to ease off food inflation as the total area of kharif crops sowing is higher this year compared to 2023. A favourable monsoon has also filled up storage levels in reservoirs which bodes well for the next cycle of sowing in autumn.

In the last week of monsoon, many regions received heavy rainfall due to the forming of a low-pressure system, and at the same, time withdrawal of the southwest monsoon continued. On a cumulative basis, rainfall was 7.8 percent above the long period average (LPA) as of September 29, as per an analysis of Barclays based on Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data. This is an increase from 5.5 percent in the previous week, indicating the monsoon season ending with “above normal” rainfall.

This year's rainfall was deficit in June, but picked up intensity significantly during the main kharif sowing month of July. Monsoon intensity was high in August and persisted through September, resulting in floods across a number of states. However, with monsoon withdrawal starting in mid-September, crop damage should likely be manageable, says Barclays.

Also read: Rain Watch for Sept 19-25: Monsoon winding up, La Nina risks low

In 2024, rainfall distribution was better compared to last year. Spatially, 33 out of 36 subdivisions received normal or above normal rainfall cumulatively by the end of the monsoon season.

The IMD's climate models suggest neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions will persist. This implies that a La Nina is unlikely to develop for now, paving the way for this year's monsoon to end without the risk of extension into the kharif harvest season which has begun, says Barclays.

Kharif sowing is ending with acreage higher than last year across most crops, except cotton. As of September 20, the total area sown was 1.5 percent higher year-on-year. Acreage for rice is 2.2 percent higher, suggestive of a favourable harvest this year. The government has removed export restrictions on some varieties of rice, including lifting a ban on non-basmati white rice, and reducing export tax on parboiled rice. Rice export was restricted for two years due to uneven rainfall.

Sowing for pulses is 7.8 percent higher year-on-year which should exert downside pressure on pulses inflation as harvests come to market.

Storage levels in water reservoirs continued to be 87 percent of total capacity as of September 26. This translates into 121 percent of the live storage level of the year-earlier period and 113 percent of normal storage. Other than the northern region (states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan), reservoir storage is higher than normal as well as higher than last year's storage across the country.

(This is the concluding part of our weekly series ‘Rain Watch’ that started in June)